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The Money Line: WNBA odds, predictions for Saturday, July 1

By Blake DuDonis

Connecticut Sun guard Jasmine Thomas steals the ball. Photo by Abe Booker, III
Connecticut Sun guard Jasmine Thomas steals the ball. Photo by Abe Booker, III /
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It happened! It really happened! Sure, there were other games yesterday but the streak was finally broken!

In all seriousness, congratulations to the San Antonio Stars for snapping their 14-game losing streak and notching their first victory of the season 89-82 over the Chicago Sky. You can chalk it up to being on a rebuilding team, but Isabelle Harrison is having herself a nice season and lead the way last night with 19 points and 10 rebounds. Kayla McBride, Alex Montgomery and Dearica Hamby all scored double digits as well as the team shot a stelar 53.4%.

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No doubt it feels good to finally have that first win and it will interesting to see if the Stars’ play will improve now that the pressure is off. We anticipate two close games tonight so let’s get to them.

Season
Spread: 28-26
Over/under- 27-27

Connecticut Sun (-2.5, -110)
Indiana Fever (+2.5, -110)
Total: 160

The Fever are currently in their best stretch of the season, winning three of their last four games and, like my over/under picks, are looking to get over .500 for the first time this season. Candice Dupree led the way again last time out in a win over Chicago as she continues to be the steady hand for Indiana this season, averaging nearly 15 PPG on 50.3% shooting. Surprisingly, her teammate Tiffany Mitchell is currently in position to start in the All-Star game despite scoring just 11.5 PPG on 38.9% FG and 25.7% from three. As a team, the Fever have been much better at home this season, recording a 5-2 record (while being just 2-5 on the road). They still have the worst defensive rating in the league, although Dallas is slowly coming to them on that, and their rebounding rate is dead last too. On a positive note, the Fever have the fourth best true shooting percentage and the second best turnover percentage in the league.

After dropping two straight, the Sun got things back on course against Seattle on Thursday night winning 96-89 on the back of Jasmine Thomas. Thomas, who scored 29 points on 12-of-16 shooting, has forced herself in the All-Star conversation and should have no problem making the squad. Over the last five games, the Sun have the third best offensive rating in the league thanks to owning the third best effective shooting percentage over that same period. The 89.8 points per game that Connecticut has scored over the small sample size is second most, trailing only the mighty Minnesota Lynx. The youth on this team still rears its ugly head every once in a while, but with Thomas, Jonquel Jones, Jasmine Thomas and Courtney Williams all proving to be more than capable, the Sun are turning into a team that nobody wants to play.

Indiana has been so steady at home and the line for this game indicates such. I really like the way Connecticut have been playing though, so I’m rolling with the Sun and the under.

NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 13: Allisha Gray during the WNBA Draft on April 13, 2017 at Samsung 837 in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – APRIL 13: Allisha Gray during the WNBA Draft on April 13, 2017 at Samsung 837 in New York, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jennifer Pottheiser/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Seattle Storm (+1.5, -110)
Dallas Wings (-1.5, -110)
Total: 162

Here come the Wings! A team that already looked dead in the water after losing six of seven, the Wings have now reeled off four straight wins including a 16-point win over Connecticut last weekend. A look at the stats over their winning streak actually contains a lot of surprises, like the fact that despite the wins that Dallas is ranked second worst in defensive rating as well as owning the third worst effective field goal shooting. Two of the wins were over the lowly Stars which helps explain some of this, and they looked awful against Washington until the Mystics turned ice cold and allowed the Wings to storm back and steal a win. Their big win over the Sun can at least be partially attributed to the plus 12 advantage in the made free throw department. Perhaps the win streak is an aberration, but the team is playing well and they have a bonafide All-Star in Skylar Diggins-Smith.

Seattle is struggling to say the least. After dropping their game against Connecticut on Thursday, the Storm have now lost six of their last seven games, with four of those losses coming on the road. Over the past seven games, Seattle is third worst in defensive rating and rebounding percentage, though their second highest effective field goal and true shooting percentages show that their issue isn’t in efficiently scoring the basketball. During their string of poor play, however, they are only scoring 81.1 PPG while giving up over 86 a game to their opponents. The play of Sue Bird, Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd and Crystal Langhorne has been solid, but the Storm’s lack of a true interior force is hindering them. Once the trendy dark horse candidate to compete for a championship, Seattle is at a point now that they are desperate for just one win.

Both of these teams would be much better off with a win tonight, so I expect to see a lot of desperation from both sides. Perhaps I’m a sucker for continuing to ride with them, but I just can’t believe Seattle is this bad so I will take the Storm and the over.

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